The effects of the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) that occurred high above the N Pole last weekend are now starting to feed into the model outputs, but given the intensity of the warming and the potential effects of a secondary one, precise details for our little island in the Atlantic remain elusive.
However Europe is set to go into the freezer this weekend and at least according to the latest GFS model runs the UK will follow suit by Monday, with some substantial snow in the offing for many during midweek. If this evolution does come to pass, then it may well prove to be a case of short term gain and long term pain, with milder, wet conditions possibly moving up from France later next week.
The ECM model on the other hand is rather more bullish about steering the very coldest air south into France, then later Iberia, with less cold conditions running down across the UK around the periphery of a High between Scotland and Iceland later next week. If this evolution does come to pass some snow is still likely at times, especially across eastern parts of England, but nowhere near to the extent being suggested by GFS.
However, here’s the rub - The ECM evolution might be less cold in the mid term, but as the high regresses towards Greenland it does herald much better prospects for prolonging the cold spell than GFS does - so whichever way you slice it, meteorological Spring will be very much on hold when it officially arrives on Mar 1st.