Weather and sporting performance

At a very basic level I’m sure many of us can remember standing on a school sports field, with a strong, bitter wind driving stinging rain or sleet into our increasingly blue tinged legs. During those times trying to remain completely focused on the game and the task in hand was almost impossible, in fact simply ensuring you didn’t get hit on the back of the thigh with the cold, wet ball seemed far more important than getting a win.

Of course things are somewhat different in modern, professional sport, clearly you would expect that given the kind of money involved, but ultimately we are still dealing with human beings and human emotions here and that is very important.

Even before the start of a game the weather can and often does start to impact players, management and coaches on a psychological level. Watching rain pour onto a already wet pitch hours before a rugby match is due to start does affect peoples thinking. Quite often management is forced into significant changes to the tactics they have worked on all week, with the players then needing to focus on how they might adapt to those changes, as well as the conditions both in the air and underfoot. All of this simply adds to the anxiety around the already highly pressured pre kick off period, meaning quite often by the time players run out onto the rain soaked park their minds are anything but focused.

Of course conditions are the same for both teams, but there is a very clear advantage to be gained by the side that knew on Tuesday morning they would most likely be dealing with these kind of conditions on Friday evening – in fact arriving to find things exactly as expected weather wise and knowing you’ve trained all week to take advantage of it then becomes very much a positive, rather than a negative.

This increased confidence and clearer thinking then also feeds into the physiological side of things, because knowing what conditions to expect means players can prepare much better for the likely impact of a heavy pitch for instance.

From a coaching/management standpoint the advantages of accurate forecast information cannot and should not be underestimated, but in truth it still is by many. However the number of clubs that have embraced the concept continues to grow, especially in football, where the affects/impacts are much more subtle but no less important.

As the gap between the bigger and smaller clubs continues to shrink and things become tighter and tighter across many of the top leagues, gaining any sort of tangible advantage/edge over your competition continues to become increasingly difficult…the weather is one such edge however and at BWS we are here to help you use it.

http://www.britishweatherservices.uk/info-page/weather-for-sports-clubs-stadia.aspx

 

Worsening weather will ramp legal cases

The more severe the weather, the greater number of weather impact cases for solicitors and insurers to deal with.  It’s a simple equation.

So, here in the UK, as we leave behind a mediocre summer with only a few high & low points, the number of weather impact cases will now rise commensurately as we push on from autumn to winter.

Jim Dale, BWS’s senior risk meteorologist says “Solicitors & insurers should gear themselves up to expect the number of weather impact cases to gradually increase. We already have had one named storm, though it won’t be too long before fog, frost and then snow start to add to the equation.”

Here at BWS we deal with all kind of weather cases – providing expert site investigations, written reports with professional conclusions and also expert witness work in court.

Bottom line: Gear up now, make yourself known as handlers of weather related cases – and feel free to knock on our door.

More info here -:

http://www.britishweatherservices.uk/info-page/legal-weather-consultancy.aspx

 

 

 

 

Weather and cricket…plenty of betting opportunities

 

It’s probably wouldn’t be rocket science to suggest weather affects cricket, indeed most folk with only a very casual interest in the game would draw that conclusion quite easily. Time taken out of a Test match by rain for instance will affect affect the odds, sometimes significantly, with several games a year across the globe being totally ruined by the weather.

From a betting perspective the great thing about cricket is every game has a time limitation, whether it be Twenty-20, One Day Internationals, domestic leagues or Test matches – there are only so many hours allocated to complete the games and only so many overs that can be bowled within those hours. Now there are all sorts of rather querky rules and regulations than can in effect ‘move time’ to a degree, but what’s unmovable is the maximum number of overs bowled in any given match, meaning when weather enters the fray opportunities arise and often abound.

Taking an ODI (One Day International) as an example, both sides are allocated 50 overs to bowl (6 balls per over) and these must all be bowled within a certain period of time overall. That time in then split into two for both sides to bowl their 50 over allocation, with a short innings break in between the action.

The number of markets offered by bookmakers for ODI’s is staggering, meaning you can bet on pretty much everything from whether the game will actually complete, to how many how many 4′s or 6′s will be hit in the game or how many runs a side might make overall. So lets just take these few examples and look how weather may influence them.

Firstly we now know that the game consists of 50 overs per side, but for it to complete (i.e an official result to be declared) both sides have to bowl a minimum of 20 overs. The Completed Match Market simply consist of a Yes/No option, so if rain prevents the 20 overs a side being bowled then those backing No win even when the game fails to produce an official result…so in this instance it’s easy to see just how important accurate weather information can be.

As far as the number of 4′s and 6′s are concerned, bookmakers will allocate a given number of them pre game that they expect to be hit, lets say they are 42 and 12 respectively. If you know weather is likely to impact the game at some point and possibly take out as many as 20-30 overs due to the time constraints explained above, it becomes much more difficult for those numbers to be reached and those laying (betting against them) have a much greater chance of winning their bet.

Much the same can be said of the Total Runs allocated to both side. The bookies may think that England should make 280 runs across their 50 over allocation, but once again if you can be confident rain will take out 10-15 of those overs then you can also be pretty confident that laying (betting against) 280 would be a decent investment.

Again as discussed above the 4′s, 6′s and Total Runs markets will only be settled if at least 20 overs per side have been bowled, but in all these and many more instances the weather can really put you onside if used correctly.

 

Weather and football…is there a betting/trading edge?

Weather does affect football and therefore many of the betting markets therein. These affects are far more subtle than in say cricket, rugby or NFL, but make no mistake they do exist and are there to be exploited by the shrewd punter.

Strong wind probably exerts the greatest influence on any game, because once above a certain velocity/criteria things become more and more of a lottery. Yes good passing sides can still manage to shine be keeping the ball on the ground as much as possible, but when the wind really picks up the less talented, more ugly teams can really take advantage, especially those with big, combative attackers and defenders. Apart from affecting the Handicap, Outright and goals markets, we also tend to see more corners than average as a result of strong winds, with as much as a 20-25% spike in some leagues.

Rain (or precipitation in general) is the second most influential element, as was clearly demonstrated at both Celtic Park and Old Trafford last night. In general falling rain slickens the surface and favours the more skillful sides. This means some excellent betting opportunities are created across a number of markets, not least the Asian Handicap, Outright and O/U2.5, but also cards, penalties and sendings off.  Of course too much rain can lead to a build up of surface water and there is a point at which this can then flip things on their head, with the underdogs tending to gain some level of advantage from the less predictable surface – this again of course can and does lead to betting opportunities within many of the same markets.

Finally temperature, whether excessively high or excessively low also has a significant affect on a number of markets within any given game. Heat, especially when combined with relative humidity in excess of 75% slows the game considerably and in turn tends to reduce the number of goals scored. Moreover it also leads to more cards being shown and in turn players sent off, as tempers have a habit of fraying rather more easily in such conditions.  Very cold weather also tends to dry up goals and is probably responsible for the biggest impacts on players, both physiologically and psychologically. Trying to remain, supple, focused and on top of your game when the mercury is hovering around -10c isn’t easy, especially for club sides like Sevilla when they travel to CSKA in December…indeed this kind of fixture throws up another wide range of opportunities to get one over on the bookies. 

Here at BWS we are right at the cutting edge of weather impact on football, indeed our current research is now sharply focused on the next level, i.e it’s effect(s) on individual player performance…so watch this space.

 

Hurricanes and a poor UK summer bring financial trading opportunities

Hurricanes and stormy weather may on the face of it seem to be all negative – and for the most part they are.  Injuries, deaths and destruction are hardly savoury items but as ever they are part and parcel of the Earth’s severe weather menu – increasingly enhanced by climate change over the past decade or so.

But every cloud has a silver lining and this one is in the area of financial trading.  Stocks (shares) and commodities ebb and flow at the time of high impact weather – whether short term as in hurricanes – or the longer seasonal stuff, like the poor mid to late summer endured in the UK.

There will be financial winners and losers – that is for sure.  For example, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma has seen weather sensitive US stocks such as Home Depot, Beacon Roofing Supplies and Lowe’s Cos.Inc spike on the demand for their products, whilst the likes of Kingfisher here in the UK saw their shares fall as the early summer promise turned into toil and trouble.  Meanwhile, commodities such as NY Orange Juice, Timber and NY Cotton all shot up in price prior to Hurricane Irma, but all fell away again as the hurricane’s impacts were judged less harrowing than they could of been.

There are of course reasons and rhymes behind every up and down move – often it’s the ‘fear v reality’ clause within financial trading, which is as apparent in weather circles as it is in the grater economy and world affairs.

The point to be made is that if you did not catch the boat with concern to the hurricanes, then there is still plenty of time for you to jump onboard (or off board) selected stocks and commodities as the weeks and months draw on – particularly as company results begin to filter in. The weather never stops and there will be more storms!

So, if you wish to stay ahead of the game and gain our professional views of not just the weather’s likely impacts, but which stocks/shares and commodities you should be focussing upon, simply go to the relevant webpage and drop us a message.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained!

http://www.britishweatherservices.uk/info-page/weather-for-financial-trading.aspx?X201723

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meteorological Autumn to arrive with a vengeance

Poor Augusts across recent years have tended to be followed by decent Septembers, easing the pain somewhat, but this year things look very different…at least for the first half of the month.

Unfortunately the jet stream looks set to power up this week and head right at the UK, bringing cool and increasingly unsettled weather right across the weekend and even well into next week. All areas can expect showers or longer spells of rain as a result, some of which will be heavy across the north and west in particular, with localised flooding likely as a result.

Winds will also become a feature, particularly across the weekend and first half of next week, with gales and perhaps even severe gales possible over the more exposed northern and western parts of the UK. As the air turns colder there is even the chance of a little sleet and wet snow at times across the very tops of the Scottish mountains, meaning any Indian Summer will be confined to India until at least mid month. 

Bank Holiday weekend (for some) outlook..and beyond.

Well after what has been a disappointingly cool, cloudy and wet 5 or 6 weeks for many, the last thing needed was a cool, cloudy and wet bank holiday weekend…thankfully that is unlikely to be the case. Yes there will be a scattering of showers around during tomorrow across the north in particular and Monday will see a band of more organised rain eventually starting to push south through Scotland and N Ireland, but for most of us it should remain dry and largely fine.

Temperatures are expected to be near average across Scotland and N Ireland, but it will become warm, even locally very warm over England and Wales, with 27-29c (81-84f) quite possible for London and the SE by Monday.

Beyond that (and quite typically when the kids are due to return to school) high pressure looks set to become the dominant feature, bringing a good deal of fine, dry and warm weather into early September, even across the more northern areas.

Orange Juice Commodity Price Slips as Tropical Storms Fade (for now)

The lowly Orange Juice commodity, which has witnessed falling and subdued prices for over 5 years has seen a sudden recent jolt upwards collapse, just as fast as it happened.

The prime cause of the slip back was down to the fizzling out of approaching tropical storms, after Hurricane Gert never made landfall where it counts (Florida).

Nevertheless, Adrian Crocker, senior meteorologist at BWS, suggests there is still plenty of time for a sharp recovery in prices. “The hurricane season is still very young. We have had a couple of early tasters that failed to cause too much panic, but I feel there is at least one ‘big’ one out there still to form and threaten southern Florida during September or October.”

Space and watch then!

http://www.britishweatherservices.uk/info-page/weather-for-financial-trading.aspx

 

B+Q (KINGFISHER) SALES DIVE DUE TO POOR SUMMER WEATHER

Well folks, here’s yet another firm relying on the old tried and tested ‘let’s blame the weather for our poor trading performance’…this time it’s Kingfisher.

The owner of DIY chain B&Q has reported a drop in sales in the three months to the end of July, largely driven by a poor performance in Britain and Ireland.

Kingfisher, which also owns trade retailer Screwfix in the UK, said like-for-like sales fell by 1.9% during the quarter in the business overall compared to the same period last year.

Much of the drag came from a decline in the number of UK B&Q customers buying summer seasonal goods such as barbecues, gardening equipment and outdoor furniture, which was down over 10%.

The firm highlighted the fact that bad weather between May and July – compared to sunnier conditions in the previous quarter and over the same period last year – contributed to the fall.

We particularly like their ‘The firm highlighted the fact that bad weather between May and July - compared to sunnier conditions in the previous quarter and over the same period last year – contributed to the fall’.

Quite how they saw Feb, Mar and Apr as being sunnier than May, Jun and Jul is a mystery only Kingfisher/B&Q can solve, but for the record…..

Feb 17 – Approx 45-65hrs E & W Approx 40-80hrs S & NI

Mar 17 – Approx 100-140hrs nationwide

Apr 17 – Approx 140-180hrs nationwide

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May 17 – Approx 180-240hrs nationwide

Jun 17 – Approx 160-220hrs E & W Approx 100-150 S & NI

Apr 17 – Approx 160-200hrs E & W, Approx 130-160hrs S & NI

Judging by their statement weather is clearly very important to them; and they like many others are a weather sensitive company, so the question must be what measures did Kingfisher/B&Q put in place help prevent or at least mitigate what ultimately happened?

Needless to say we will be posing this and a number of other questions to their decision makers; let’s see what answers they provide… if any!

In the meantime, if you are a retailing company or a marketing firm for retailers, then you may like to take a look here -:

http://www.britishweatherservices.uk/info-page/historical-data.aspx

 

 

 

Football weather…some stats to consider

Certain types of weather impact certain markets within any given game of football – FACT!

These impacts are often more subtle than within other sports such as cricket and rugby, but that makes their identification and quantification all the more important. Here at BWS we have compared and contrasted a number of weather elements with historical results going back a decade across the 5 major leagues in Europe; our findings were not wholly unsurprising in general, but as with many things in life the devil lies in the detail, as does the wide range of betting opportunities/edges it presents.

One particularly interesting find was local climate plays a significant part in the overall affect of weather on certain markets, despite almost all top level teams being made up of many different nationalities. For instance of the 183 occasions when 10mm of rain fell immediately prior too and/or during games in the EPL we saw 70.9% come in over GE. In La Liga that number rose to 73.12% of 132 games, in Serie A it was 74.54% of 129 games. So very clearly less games see that level of rainfall in Spain and Italy, but when it does happen a greater % of games come in over GE.  Much the same can be said for the other 2 levels of rainfall we quantified, suggesting a very obvious link between results and climate. 

Perhaps not unsurprisingly but nonetheless very interestingly, the opposite can be said for high temperature, which is widely known to dry up goals. In the EPL only 117 games were played across the last decade in temperatures between 27-30c, but 73.16% of them came in under GE. In both Spain and Italy where that level of heat is far more normal we saw only 61.62% from 474 and 63.57% from 449 respectively. Once again the results we very similar for the other two heat levels we quantified, demonstrating another clear link to climate and results. Once high humidity was added to the mix however things became even more interersting/obvious….but we will keep those stats for another day.  

In short anyone either betting football or making markets really does need to consider the weather, it’s the one thing that can literally rain on your parade and make all your hard work on every other aspect of the game completely superfluous.

Talk to us, you will be glad you did.

http://www.britishweatherservices.uk/info-page/weather-for-sports-betting.aspx