TRUMP IS WRONG ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE. WE MUST STAND TALL AND OPPOSE HIM.

At British Weather Services we have 7.4 billion reasons why Trump, and for that matter The Sun, UKIP and all other doubters are wholly wrong to oppose the Paris Climate Change Agreement and promote the false belief that man-made climate change is unreal.

Politics has strayed into science and the well being of the Earth that we all live upon, so we have taken the decision to stray into politics and stand-up against the dinosaurs, the ignorant and the wanton destroyers.  

Please feel free to share, like, join us and stand tall. 

SNOW/STORM ALERT LATEST

BRITISH WEATHER SERVICES’ – WEATHER ALERT UPDATE!
Issued: 1200 HOURS ON TUESDAY 10TH JANUARY 2017

Period of Validity: 0600 HOURS WEDNESDAY 11TH JAN > 1200 HOURS SATURDAY 14TH JAN 2017

Impacting Status’s:
Red
Red Watch
Amber
Amber Watch
Green
(status definitions = Red = Extreme Peril Amber = Moderate Peril Green = Slight to Moderate Peril)

Impacting Weather Elements:
Fog
Ice
Rain/Flood
Wind
Thunderstorms
Snow

Expected Impacted Regions:

WIND:
England: Northeast (Red Watch); Northwest; The Midlands; East Anglia; Southwest; Central Southern; Greater London; Southeast.
Wales: North; Central; South.
Scotland: Highlands & Outer Islands; Grampian & Aberdeenshire; Tayside & Fife; Borders; Dumfries & Galloway, Strathclyde.
Northern Ireland: Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Londonderry, Tyrone.

SNOW:
England: Northeast; Northwest; East Anglia; Southwest (high ground only); The Midlands; Central Southern; Greater London; Southeast.
Wales: North; Central; South.
Scotland: Highlands & Outer Islands; Grampian & Aberdeenshire; Tayside & Fife; Borders; Dumfries & Galloway, Strathclyde. (Red Watch)
Northern Ireland: Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Londonderry, Tyrone.

ICE:
England: Northeast; Northwest; The Midlands; East Anglia; Southwest (high ground only); Central Southern; Greater London; Southeast.
Wales: North; Central; South.
Scotland: Highlands & Outer Islands; Grampian & Aberdeenshire; Tayside & Fife; Borders; Dumfries & Galloway, Strathclyde.
Northern Ireland: Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Londonderry, Tyrone.

Detail: Things are more or less on course as per the previous Weather Alert; with the high winds setting in later on Wednesday and increasing to their peak by the end of Thursday. Structural damage and hazardous driving can be expected in the red/amber zones.

The snow events will evolve and will no doubt change to a degree on what’s above; but the highlighted red and amber zones are thought most likely to see cumulative lying snow, blown about by the stormy/high winds of Friday.

Virtually all parts of the UK will enter into the freezer over the period, and although the wind/snow events will have relented by Saturday, a nationwide icy freeze will be apparent on Saturday morning.

WEATHER ADVISORY: Although this particular wintry snap may appear to be short-lived into the 2nd half of the weekend, the slide into frigid air and the ice /snow risks that brings, are expected to fairly quickly re-establish themselves as we move through the course of next week. The extreme cold over much of continental Europe is destined to come our way c/o easterly winds as the week unwinds, bringing with it frigid temperatures and a heightening snow risk, this time with eastern counties most to risk, including the London area. Space & watch!

 

A wild, wooly Christmas, especially up north

Well after what was a dry, quiet Autumn and a relatively benign first half of December, things look to change with a vengeance later this week, as the Jetstream powers up to near maximum capacity and fires one weather system after another directly at the UK. The first of the rain associated with these deepening low pressure systems will arrive in N Ireland late Thursday evening, then spread rapidly east to affect all parts of the UK by the second half of Friday. Winds will also be a feature, with SW’erly gales and localised severe gales expected to batter some northern and especially northwestern areas.

After a brief respite and perhaps some wintry showers later Friday and early on Saturday, the next in the line of active weather systems will be showing it’s hand across N Ireland and W Scotland by noon. Rain will then quickly spread to all areas overnight and into Xmas morning, finally clearing the east coast in the early afternoon. The main feature however will again the wind, with severe gale or even storm force gusts likely for a time overnight and during Xmas Day. At this stage the worst affected areas look set to be Scotland, N Ireland and N England, where gusts of 60-80mph look possible widely and perhaps 90mph+ locally, but even in the south gales and localised severe gales cannot be ruled out.

Winds of this intensity are sufficient to cause damage to both trees and structures, making travel difficult at best and even potentially dangerous……so definitely one to keep a very close eye in the coming days.

We will of course be issuing further Weather Warnings for this and any other events as forecast confidence improves, so to subscribe and keep at least one step ahead of the weather this Xmas please contact   office@britishweatherservicers.co.uk

UK WINTER OUTLOOK DEC-FEB, NOW AVAILABLE

WINTER 2016/17: MILD & WET ? COLD & SNOWY? DRY & SEDATE?
The BRITISH WEATHER SERVICES’ 2016/17 UK Winter Outlook is now available.
Month by month prognosis -December through February. Quite simply the best guide to the most likely outcome for the UK Winter.
Constructed using an amalgamation of the latest climatological and ocenaographic trends, the BWS Winter Outlook is available to weather sensitive companies for £195 plus VAT.   Updates are part of the package.
Stay sharp this Winter.  Order your Outlook today by emailing office@britishweatherservices.co.uk.   Thank you.

WHY TRUMP IS BAD FOR PLANET EARTH

If and it’s a big IF, President-elect Trump carries out his electioneering threats concerning the US’s withdrawal from global warming initiatives, it will be one massive step backwards for Planet Earth and a huge risk for generations to come.

President-elect Trump has said that he will “cancel” the Paris Climate Agreement within 100 days of taking office and will do everything in his power to reverse climate change regulations introduced by President Obama and agreed at the recent Paris climate change conference.

He has promised a renewed push to use coal across the US – no doubt to win over some of the northern states with huge coal reserves, but in reality this is the dirtiest energy option possible and will set us back decades in terms of clean air and CO2 emissions -the number one reason why our planet is experiencing year on year global temperature records.

He has also pledged to stop all government funding of clean energy projects and climate change initiatives, which is a big poke in the eye for the world-wide scientific community and worst still for every person on Earth who wishes to breath clean air, opposed to stepping back half a century and more to when man-made respiratory diseases were rife, even in the developed world.

Image may contain: fire and night

 

Mr Trump has repeatedly denied the science of human-caused climate change, describing it as “fictional’ and arguing that it is a hoax created by the Chinese to make US manufacturing less competitive. To be honest I find that utterly staggering, given the wealth of undeniable scientific data – some of it straight out of China itself, a country along with India have jumped onboard efforts and initiatives to stop our run-away climate spelling a possible death knell for Planet Earth.

Mr Trump’s statements are ignorant at best and if they were to come to pass, extremely dangerous. Even if he thinks global warming is a hoax, he cannot be so stupid as to think there isn’t at least some risk and that the US’s own climate scientists at NOAA, NASA and the National Weather Service are mad fools. Surely he cannot have missed the sight of rapidly melting ice sheets at the Poles, nor can he have missed the increasingly severe weather events that have devastated certain parts of the US over the past decade.

Pulling the US out of climate change initiatives simply risks other nations following suit; rather like lemmings leaping over a cliff with no sight of what lies below. Where the US goes the many follow, but in this case I sincerely hope not. We have to resist.

The battle for our Planet is a losing battle but it’s not yet lost. As the world appears to be tipping more and more to the political extreme right, where preservation of our Planet doesn’t even figure, then the rest of us, the vast majority, have a duty to stand tall and speak out against those that seek power and self-interest above the interests of mankind’s very survival. Maybe not for me, maybe not of you, but possibly for the children of today and almost certainly for the children yet to be born.

Putting every other issue about the man and his very loud promises aside, Trump’s election is bad for Planet Earth; that is UNLESS he can be persuaded that the Earth is not flat and that it has a living heart and an enigmatic soul that requires careful considered preservation, opposed to risking a slow burning death of our own making.

 

JIM N R DALE

FOUNDER & SENIOR RISK METEOROLOGIST

BRITISH WEATHER SERVICES

Winter 2016/17 hinting cold/snowy for UK

It’s very early days – and we don’t easily cry wolf or market imminent Armageddon statements much as the Daily Express and their weather outputs tend to do; BUT as things stand, it’s currently shaping up to be the coldest and snowiest winter for several years in the UK and Europe.

There are some very solid reasons why this winter has a higher percentage chance of being a more severe winter than recent ones. It starts over the Arctic where the atmospheric pattern must be of a certain shape and colour to make possible for an an icy outflow to become established. That is already happening.

The second reason concerns the Atlantic weather producing factory and what we call the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This, combined with the high level Jet Stream are the drivers of active lows and fronts that normally give western Europe relatively mild, relatively wet winters, with only occasional wintry intrusions. It’s the cold outflow from the Arctic that will help subdue the NAO and if that happens (which is more likely than not), then look to the far colder north and east for our weather, as per winter 2010/11.

The third reason concerns high pressure becoming fixed over northern Siberia and Scandinavia or rather Scandinavia, which means very freezing but largely dry for them, but freezing and snowy for us, as fronts come at us from mid to southern Russia.

Now, add in that the world has swapped an El Nino for a La Nina ocean current, which in itself tends to swap weather patterns around globally and you can see why the risks of a severe winter have risen from a normal 5-10% risk, to one closer to 40-50%, as it currently stands.

However, got to be careful here. The UK stands alone on the corner of all things – much as we do politically nowadays. We always tend to be on the fringe of matters weather-wise and even a freezing Europe may not always result in the UK joining in.

BUT and as ever in these situations, watch the space carefully and start the preparations early. At BWS we output seasonal, monthly, 1-10 day and weather alerts to clients who value early advice and service. Drop us a line if your company might benefit from any of the above, and we”ll ensure you are kept in the picture from now on in.

Finally, don’t forget. “For every flake of snow, for every early morning frost and for every iceberg on your drive, there is a commensurate rise and fall in the demand for…  everything!”

BWS – A BRITISH, EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK

As Britain and the government ties itself in knots over the ramifications of Brexit, we would like to make it clear to our clients, suppliers and friends, that British Weather Services is an open-door, equal opportunity company, with an all-embracing inclusive trading and employment philosophy.

We don’t believe in building walls and hiding behind them; irrespective of the current direction of the UK, we won’t withdraw into ourselves and we will continue to embrace and value our business and personal relationships here in the UK, with our friends in the EU and Europe more generally – and indeed far and wide across the free-trading, free-thinking world.   

Whatever the long-term outcomes of Brexit, our inclusive fair-minded philosophy will remain unchanged, both in and beyond the EU.  

The weather doesn’t know or care for borders or barriers;  as a meteorological trading company we are happy and proud to follow that lead!

  

BWS THE OFFICIAL METEOROLOGISTS FOR THE RED BULL AIR RACE – 13TH/14TH AUG 2016

We are proud to announce that BWS are the official meteorologists for this year’s UK Red Bull Air Race, taking place at Ascot Racecourse weekend 13th/14th August 2016.

Senior Met. Jim N R Dale says “This is another big vote of confidence in our long-standing services for top sporting clubs and events.  We supply forecasts and information to  a diverse range of clients in the sporting world, from football teams and speedway stadiums through to front-line bookmakers and now Red Bull GMBH adds to our growing list”.

Jim will be attending the event on Saturday 13th, for TV interviews and ensuring all is going to plan re our forecasts.

At the time of writing, things are shaping up nicely with concern to the weather.  We will of course keep everyone updated, so why not come along to this immensely spectacular event and enjoy a great day out! 

WHAT DRIVES FOOTBALL ODDS AND THE OUTCOMES?

There are SEVEN key areas that drive football odds…. and of course the potential outcomes -:

1. Form

2. Head to heads.

3. Statistics.

4. The Referee.

5. The Market Place (whose offering what).

6. The Maths v The Positional Value.  

7. Impacting Weather. 

If you leave weather out of the equation (like most punters do) you are seriously diluting your advantage.

Talk to us today to include it in your equations.

Please email: sports@britishweatherservices.co.uk

THE UK FLOODS – WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN NEXT

And so we leave a truly remarkable December behind, the wettest and mildest since modern records began, and absolute misery for the victims of the floods.  But what’s next in terms of both the weather outlook and what the longer term solutions should be?
At the outset, let me make something crystal clear to Prime Minister Cameron, Elizabeth Truss (the environment minister), Piers Corbyn (Jeremy’s brother and critic of global warming issues) and indeed Uncle Tom Cobley and all; global warming accompanied by a strong El Nino, a roaring jet stream and long term deforestation of our hills, were the principal causes of the grief and sooner or later things WILL repeat, at the same locations and elsewhere.  That is as sure a bet as the current drowning Australia v West Indies 2nd test match in Sydney ending in a soggy draw.  So action IS required, but that does NOT mean raising flood barriers by a few inches more.
As for the immediate weather outlook –  and although we have still got some more impacting rain to come over the next few days, the inevitable move towards somewhat drier but much colder weather is looming large.  Frosts and snow may well be our next concern, which on the face of it doesn’t seem quite so debilitating, indeed it’s what the UK has been missing for many weeks now – a ‘normal’ winter.  So some respite (for now perhaps), but that does not mean we are out of the woods.  River levels and water tables will remain high for some time yet and it won’t take much of a reversion for flood risks to rise again.  It’s all in the global warming melting pot!
Now, turning to the solutions.  As a risk meteorologist, my job is assess weather/climate risks and come up with solutions that try to solve/make better/provide an answer for weather impacts across various fields.  What I’m not is an construction engineer, an inventor or a technician beyond my own meteorological boundaries, so I do not profess to be able to tread where my skills do not go.  I’ll leave that to those that can do a job within the various positions they hold.  But what I have come up with is an 12 point starter plan that can be debated, added to and subtracted by those engaged in making the solutions actually happen. In that two things are very clear, the first is that doing nothing or fiddling at the margins is not an option (and that includes government ramping of what’s being spent).  The second is (are you listening Mr.Cameron & Mr. Osborne), it’s going to take billions of pounds to take us to a point where we need to be practically, in order to combat the risks.  So here we go then.
1.  The government must reinstate and indeed increase the subsidies on alternative forms of energy – wind, solar, tide etc.  It is utterly pointless in advocating alleviating CO2 levels at the recent Paris climate change conference, whilst doing the opposite in practice.  We must do our bit and the government must stop pulling the wool over our eyes.
2. The individuals and councils impacted by the recent floods require not only compensating, but they also need additional money to take the necessary steps to re-build and protect, as outlined in 3-10.  Charity handouts are NOT a fair or reasonable method of assisting those who have been most impacted, and local councils and/or insurers cannot be expected to pick up the bill and go on picking up the bill in the future, as evidently some risks are a risk too far.
3. Hillsides and mountains stripped of woods/forests over the decades need to be replanted.  Floods of the type seen over the past few weeks can to a degree be alleviated by natural barriers which can soak up and slow down water flows into rivers. Other ingenious methods of slowing/diverting water flows also need to be employed by those with the knowledge and capability.
4. In the short term, all households and businesses in the immediate line of fire should be given emergency items to assist when the peril rises.  That may include a simple box of items such as torches, whistles, first aid kits, life-jackets, tinned food/bottled water and the like.  Whatever is of most help when the need arises.  Lives will be at risk in the future and well considered safety items can do a lot to ensure lives are saved.
5.  At risk communities require a place to go when the risk rises to a point for the need of evacuation. That could mean the building of a ‘community safe house’, where camp beds and food can be provided to suit the size of the population. Built out of the risk zone probably on current farmland, perhaps with alternate uses for when floods are not on the agenda.
6.  Towns and villages in the risk zones could also benefit from what I have  called a ‘safe storage centre’.  A new community building out of the risk zone which can safely and store the most expensive/cherished personal/business items for free, for as long as is necessary, taking some of the onus off insurers and ensuring that such losses are minimised.
7.  In the medium/long term, houses and business in the immediate flood plains need to be abandoned and relocated elsewhere.  One massive and expensive step for sure but one that is absolutely necessary.  Like it or not, it’s time to leave the sinking ship and find an island.
8.   The same areas should be re-allocated as ‘leisure areas’ only – where any floods will cause minimal disruption.  The battle has been lost; admit it and work and play with mother nature, not against it.  Create these new zones where imagination can run riot.
9. Houses and businesses deemed in the second line of fire, require a change of internal design. Waterproofing first-floor doors and windows, furnishings, floorings and electrics that can withstand water inundation.  In effect, a new type of modern internals that cannot be beyond the realms of construction companies and others.
10.  A slightly selfish one but nonetheless required imo.  That is local authorities and government should not only rely solely upon Met.Office outputs re severe weather warnings.  Very often independent companies such as BWS are far more at the races when it comes to warning about severe impacting weather.  The Met. Office are NOT always right – sometimes they are wrong, sometimes they are slow in delivering the message and occasionally too quick, in delivering the wrong message (crying wolf).  UK PLC needs to wake up to the fact that it is beneficial to have more than one public voice and opinion when it comes to weather perils.
11.  It’s all about education and publicity.  Schools, communities and broadcasting/media organisations should be very much part of the equation.     A renewed emphasis needs to be placed on climate change impact and more particularly the solutions, as at such times it’s individuals that will come forward with the best solutions, solutions that may be ‘sold’ internationally.  Engage the population, ramp up the debate and do not allow the government to hide away until the next time.
12.  Go on fill the space…..